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Tim Duy is an academic expert in the US macroeconomy, includinding topics such as unemployment, inflation, GDP, etc. He has particular expertise in Federal Reserve policy. As director of Oregon Economic Forum, he explores the ongoing political and business economic dialogue, while allowing business, finance, government and university leaders the chance to examine relevant economic issues. The Forum produces the UO Statewide Economic Indicator, Regional Economic Indicators and the Central Oregon Business Index. Tim is a member of the Oregon Governor’s Council of Economic Advisors.

Recent Media:

• The hot labor market has melted away. Just ask new college grads. (The New York Times, Sept. 6, 2024)
• Why the Fed could eventually cut interest rates again (Marketplace, Aug. 15, 2023)
• Powell: Fighting inflation will cause ‘some pain’ and ‘very likely’ soften the job market (The Washington Post, Aug. 26, 2022)
• 5 economic forces behind the Fed’s next rate-hike decision (The Washington Post, July 24, 2022)
• Government data seems to show inflation’s slowing. But that doesn’t mean prices will fall. (Marketplace, May 10, 2022)
• Fed hikes rates by half a percentage point in fight against inflation (The Washington Post, May 4, 2022)
• Analysis: Biden's $1.9 trillion rescue package offers bridge for hard-hit economy (Yahoo Finance, Jan. 14, 2021)
• How the Economy Is Actually Doing, in 9 Charts (The New York Times, Dec. 17, 2020)
• Fed to weigh further options for aiding US economy in peril (Minneapolis Star Tribune, Dec. 14, 2020)
• Get Ready for a Supercharged Economy (Bloomberg Opinion, Dec. 1, 2020)
• 'Dial back' or 'emergency brake?' New lockdowns and the U.S. economy (Reuters, Nov. 19, 2020)
• What Kind of Economy Will Joe Biden Inherit? (The New Yorker, Nov. 18, 2020)
• Biden Is Stepping Into a Dream Economic Scenario (Bloomberg Opinion, Nov. 11, 2020)
• Coronavirus stimulus checks: Americans were savvy with first round of direct payments, data shows (Yahoo Finance, Oct. 16, 2020)
• As job losses continue, doubts are rising about unemployment data (Axios, Oct 9, 2020)
• Trump stuffs stimulus (Politico, Oct. 7, 2020)
• Does Jobs Report Even Matter Anymore? (Bloomberg Opinion, Oct. 1, 2020)
• What are the Fed's new hurdles for rate hikes? Only the Fed knows (Reuters, Sept. 18, 2020)
• New Monetary Policy And The Economic Recovery Forecast (Forbes, April 18, 2020)
• The Great Recession Was Bad. The ‘Great Lockdown’ Is Worse. (Bloomberg, April 15, 2020)
• Here’s what the Federal Reserve is doing, isn’t doing, and can’t do to address the coronavirus (New York Magazine, March 24, 2020)
• Fed Aims 'Bazooka' to Backstop Coronavirus-Hit Economy (The New York Times, March 23, 2020)
• A Big Bet That May Not Be Enough (The New York Times, March 16, 2020)
• Why Did the Fed Cut Rates to Near Zero? (Kiplinger, March 16, 2020)
• Fed slashes rates to near zero, eases bank lending rules (Marketplace, March 15, 2020)
• Here’s why it matters that interest rates have cratered (New York Magazine, March 8, 2020)
• Fed expected to hold rates steady and emphasize patience (The New York Times, Jan. 30, 2019)
• Investors fear that the unwinding of QE is causing market turbulence (The Economist, Jan. 24, 2019)
• Fed Chair Powell's unscripted approach sets up for rocky 2019 (Reuters, Dec. 30, 2018)
• Investors, Fed officials are out of sync (The Wall Street Journal, Dec. 20, 2018)
• Fed didn't provide the clarity the market needed, Univ. of Oregon's Duy says (Bloomberg TV, Dec. 20, 2018)
• Wall Street's favorite recession gauge is flashing yellow again — and not everyone thinks it's a false alarm (Business Insider, July 24, 2018)
• New York Fed Picks John Williams as President (The Wall Street Journal, April 3, 2018)
• Fed must look at soft data to justify a rate hike (Bloomberg, March 8, 2017)
• Will Trump's plan mean faster rate hikes? (USA Today, Dec. 11, 2016
• Does Trump spell trouble for the Fed's independence? (Bloomberg TV, Nov. 15, 2016)
• Are macroeconomic models still credible? (Bloomberg, Sept. 14, 2016)
• Why the Fed can't and shouldn't raise interest rates (Bloomberg Business, July 18, 2016)
• The Fed’s market mover keeps changing his mind (The Wall Street Journal, June 27, 2016)
• Five questions for Janet Yellen (Bloomberg Business, June 10, 2016)
• Fischer versus Brainard: The Fed's take on inflation (Bloomberg Business, March 18, 2016)
• Stanley Fischer and Lael Brainard are battling for Yellen’s soul (Bloomberg Business, March 15, 2016)
• The five scenarios now facing the Federal Reserve​ (Bloomberg Business, Jan. 26, 2016)
• The Fed is on thinner ice than it realizes, and it may be setting us up for recession (Bloomberg Business, Aug. 13, 2015)
• Fed decision day guide: interest-rate projections (Bloomberg Business, June 16, 2015)
• Dogs, guns and weddings help U.S. investors take America's pulse (Reuters, May 7, 2015)
• Obama heads to Nike Inc (NKE) headquarters touting TPP to nation divided on trade deals (International Business Times, May 7, 2015)
• Fed minutes guide: inflation confidence and patience key (Bloomberg Business, Feb. 17, 2015)
• VIDEO: Tim Duy on the U.S. economy (Boom Bust, Feb. 2, 2015)
• Fed likely to continue to signal mid-2015 rate hike (USA Today, Jan. 27, 2015)
• Gasoline heads to $2, breaking records along the way (The Wall Street Journal, Jan. 22, 2015)
• Oregon economy grows ahead of average as hiring picks up, new UO report shows (The Oregonian, Jan. 5, 2015)